The $3.5 billion question that could decide Austin or Houston's NHL future

Daly joined Pierre McGuire and Jimmy Murphy on The Sick Podcast's The Eye Test on Wednesday to discuss league growth, the rising salary cap and expansion.

Murphy's own framing pointed at the live question, asking whether Houston or Austin ends up as the in-state rival to the Dallas Stars.

Gary Bettman explained the origin back in June. Talks with the Friedkin family ran for roughly two years focused on Houston, then morphed into Austin as the need for a new Houston building stayed unresolved.

Both markets require a new arena, and Bettman said one may prove more feasible than the other.

Austin is not a rival market so much as a pressure valve on Houston's arena math.

The Board of Governors has not voted on anything. The executive committee endorsed the term sheet only, and a vote arrives if the league and the Friedkins reach a joint conclusion inside the six-month window Bettman set on June 23.

That puts the decision point near the end of December, which is why Daly is comfortable talking without naming a city. The $3.5 billion figure covers the expansion fee plus arena construction, so the winner is whichever site closes its financing first.

The rising cap Daly discussed does not come from this. League revenue was projected between $7.5 billion and $8 billion last season, and the ceiling sits at $104 million for 2026-27.

Atlanta and Arizona were both updated at that same meeting, and Bettman said neither is as far along.

They are now priced against a number instead of a concept.

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