Matthew Schaefer's next contract will be massive, but the reason is not Macklin Celebrini

The San Jose Sharks signed Celebrini to a five-year, $94 million deal Wednesday, per NHL.com. It begins in 2027-28 and makes him the league's highest-paid player.

The New York Islanders are being cast as the franchise squeezed by that number. The math does not work that way.

Forwards and defensemen have never been paid off the same scale. The highest cap hit ever handed to a defenseman is Bowen Byram's $12.5 million with the Chicago Blackhawks, roughly two-thirds of Celebrini's figure.

That is the market Schaefer enters, and Jeff Marek's question about next July is the right one to ask.

Schaefer cannot sign anything until July 1, 2027. Three defense contracts will likely be written before that date.

Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are both entering the final year of six-year deals, at $9 million and $7.85 million respectively. Both became extension-eligible this month.

Whatever the Colorado Avalanche pay Makar becomes the ceiling for defensemen, and Elliotte Friedman has said on 32 Thoughts that Makar can essentially name his figure.

That deal is Schaefer's comparable. Celebrini's is not.

General manager Mathieu Darche has a strange incentive here. A Makar contract near $16 million hands Schaefer's camp a target, while one closer to $14 million gives Darche a ceiling to argue down from.

Either way, the Islanders' bill gets written in Denver and Minnesota long before it reaches Long Island.

Schaefer produced 23 goals and 59 points in 82 games as an 18-year-old, winning the Calder Trophy unanimously. Peter DeBoer inherits him for a full season first.

The number to watch next July is Makar's, not Celebrini's.

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