Insider Chris Johnston provides big update on a Morgan Rielly trade
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
The Toronto Maple Leafs can probably trade Morgan Rielly this summer. What they can't do is control what comes back.
Chris Johnston pegged the odds Sunday night at 75-25 that Rielly gets moved before the season starts.
Re Morgan Rielly/Maple Leafs: "It's still more likely than not, 75-25[%] he's traded this summer."
- Chris Johnston
- Chris Johnston
That number reads like leverage for Toronto, and it is closer to the reverse.
Rielly holds a full no-move clause, and PuckPedia shows it stays fully intact for two more seasons before easing to a 10-team list.
He decides where he goes, not general manager John Chayka.
The list is the whole story
Rielly has reportedly given Toronto a short, Western-Conference-heavy wish list, with San Jose and Anaheim near the top.
Both are rebuilding clubs sitting on cap space, not contenders trading first-round picks for a 32-year-old.
A player who approves only two rising teams cannot command a win-now return. The market sets that price, and Rielly just narrowed it to a handful of buyers.
The closest template is Artemi Panarin to Los Angeles, where New York held a strong hand yet settled for a prospect and mid-round picks because the player steered it.
Chayka may also retain salary to close a deal, which means paying to fund the exit.
Why the buyer wins this one
The alarm centers on Rielly's minus-18 and 36 points for a club that finished 32-36-14 and last in the Atlantic.
Strip out that sinking roster and a more useful player appears.
Since 2022-23, ESPN notes Rielly ranks seventh among all defensemen in playoff points-per-game and plus-11 in the postseason.
That is the version San Jose or Anaheim would be buying, not the one drowning on a minus-46 team.
Chayka publicly said he does not anticipate moving Rielly, though Johnston called it premature to remove him from the trade-bait list.
With the clause intact for two more years, there is no clock forcing this, only a front office deciding whether cap relief now beats value later.
Toronto gets younger and clears money, but the asset haul the standings seem to promise won't arrive.
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