The real reason Connor Bedard signed for $3 million less than Leo Carlsson

It moved less than the framing suggests.

Bedard signed for five years at $15 million on July 18, one day after turning 21 and ten days after surgery on his left shoulder.

He also missed time last season with a right shoulder problem and still led Chicago with 75 points in 69 games.

Insider David Pagnotta feels the injury led to less money.

The injury's real cost was not at the table with Kyle Davidson. It was that no rival general manager was ever going to hand a multi-first-round offer sheet to a center with a four-month recovery clock running.

Leo Carlsson's $18 million cap hit was written by the Philadelphia Flyers and matched by the Anaheim Ducks. That figure exists because a second team put it in writing.

Bedard negotiated with one buyer.

Chicago never had to outbid anybody, and his camp had no competing paper to point at.

Don Meehan told The Athletic that his client was content with the position they had already submitted, which is what a negotiation without an outside bid sounds like.

Fantilli is healthy, still unsigned in Columbus, and still offer-sheet eligible. Aaron Portzline pegs him at five years somewhere between $13 million and $14 million.

If health were the whole story, a fully fit third overall pick would be pushing Carlsson's ceiling rather than sitting below Bedard.

The pattern across all three 2023 top picks is simpler than durability.

The two who talked only to their own team landed between $13 million and $15 million, and the one who drew an outside offer landed at $18 million.

That is the lesson for every restricted free agent still waiting this summer.

Leverage is not something you earn in July, it is something another club hands you.

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