Worst and best case scenarios have just been confirmed for the Leafs and Oilers

A DraftKings graphic built on Hockey Alchemy ratings ranks Toronto first in schedule difficulty and the Edmonton Oilers dead last at 32nd.

That spread reads like a verdict on both clubs. It is closer to a map of where they live.

Strength of schedule is mostly a readout of your neighbors, and Toronto and Edmonton have very different neighbors right now.

Five Atlantic Division teams finished inside the top nine in 2025-26, per Hockey-Reference: the Buffalo Sabres, Tampa Bay Lightning, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators.

Toronto plays that gauntlet most often, so its slate grades out brutal.

Edmonton's easy schedule is the mirror image of a weak Pacific Division, where the Vancouver Canucks finished dead last leaguewide.

The Oilers did not earn a soft schedule. They simply share a division that collapsed.

Note the inversion: Toronto finished 28th yet drew the hardest schedule, while Edmonton finished 14th and drew the easiest, a reminder that difficulty tracks your division, not your own record.

Difficulty bites hardest when you are already climbing. Toronto finished 28th and missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs, then handed the reset to new general manager John Chayka and new coach Jim Hiller.

A handful of lost points there can decide a wild-card race.

Edmonton's new coach, Mike Babcock, inherits Connor McDavid and the softest runway in the league to stabilize a team that lost in Round 1.

NHL schedule gaps are tiny, a fraction of a goal per game.

The edge is real but small, and small margins simply cost Toronto more than they cost Edmonton.

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