NHL's next expansion team confirmed by two insiders

Gary Bettman announced on June 23 that the NHL had opened a six-month process to evaluate a 33rd franchise in Houston or Austin, with the Friedkin family as prospective owner.

Podcast consensus has since hardened around Houston.

The detail buried under that consensus is the price. Bettman pegged the Friedkin commitment at roughly $3.5 billion: a $2 billion expansion fee plus about $1.5 billion for an arena, because the league says both Texas cities need a new building.

Quebec City already has the rink.

Videotron Centre opened in September 2015 at a cost of C$370 million, seats 18,259 for hockey and was built to NHL standard with public money.

Under the old math, that was the hard part. The Vegas Golden Knights paid a $500 million entry fee and the Seattle Kraken paid $650 million, and both walked into existing arena situations.

The expansion fee alone is now four times what Vegas paid.

Access has been repriced from who owns a building to who can privately fund one.

Bettman said Atlanta and Arizona are not as far along as the Friedkin group, not that they are eliminated.

Measured against a $3.5 billion bar, "not as far along" means capital, not civic appetite.

It also explains the strangest fact in this race. An April NHLPA player poll put Houston first at 34.3 percent and Quebec City second at 16.9, with Austin last of five options, yet Austin is a finalist and Quebec City is not in the room.

The next franchise goes to a checkbook, not a shortlist.

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