Oilers targeting former Penguins forward in free agency coming off his best season

David Pagnotta floated the idea on Inside Sports, naming the Oilers as a team that could bite. The pitch is simple: cheap size and a big shot for a contender chasing scoring.

Here is the part the excitement skips. Mantha's 33 goals came on a 21.7 percent shooting rate, nearly double the 11 to 13 percent he has posted across his career.

Before this year his career high was 48 points, set twice in Detroit nearly a decade ago. He cleared it at 31, a year after a torn ACL limited him to 13 games in Calgary.

That is not a skill jump. It is a hot season, and hot seasons cool.

This has happened before. The last time Mantha spiked his shooting was 2023-24 in Washington, another walk year, and the production fell off once the deal was signed.

PensBurgh's own season review flagged the same regression risk, noting most of his goals came from in tight on a run well past his norm.

Streakiness is the book on him. He has worn five jerseys since 2021, and runs like this are what get him paid before the cool-down.

Edmonton does not lose in October. It loses in May, beaten in back-to-back Cup Finals and gone in round one this year.

So the only scoring that matters in Edmonton is playoff scoring, and Mantha has none. He has zero goals in 20 career playoff games, plus one assist in six with Pittsburgh this spring.

The bet is not whether Mantha fills a net in January. It is whether a streaky winger finally delivers what he never has, on a term that outlives the hot streak.

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