Edmonton's offseason ranking has just thrown Stan Bowman deeper into controversy
Photo credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Two numbers are fighting over Edmonton's summer, and both are right.
That is the part nobody covering the Oilers offseason has said out loud.
The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn published his annual look at which teams improved most this summer, and Edmonton landed 25th of 32 with a minus-8 net rating.
His model rates the change in each roster's net rating against the group that team ended last season with, deadline additions included.
Meanwhile a Cult of Hockey poll had 55 percent of readers handing Stan Bowman an A. The framing writes itself: cold analytics versus warm fandom.
Except the two grades never touch. One measures roster talent added. The other is rewarding a general manager for the one move his model cannot see.
The model is blind to the actual bet
Edmonton's offseason was not a free-agency haul. It was firing Kris Knoblauch after a first-round exit to Anaheim and hiring Mike Babcock, a swap McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman personally green-lit.
A net-rating delta counts players, not benches. Babcock's arrival, the entire thesis of the summer, registers as zero.
So minus-8 is not a verdict on Bowman. It is the sound of a capped-out, already-elite roster shedding expiring depth with nowhere to spend.
Why the list punishes good teams
Improvement is a delta, and delta rewards whoever had the most room to climb. Nashville topped the same list after a summer of aggressive additions.
Edmonton had no such runway.
Teams this close to the ceiling almost always grade poorly here, every single summer.
Read the ranking as a talent-added scoreboard and it is accurate.
Read it as an offseason report card and you are grading a chess move with a checkers rulebook.
That is the gap. The fans and the analyst are both right, because they are answering different questions entirely.
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