Gavin McKenna slapped with a harsh wake up call after just three NHL games

The sample is tiny, and Toronto has lost two of its first three games. Still, the early picture matches what scouts flagged before the draft.

McKenna has been criticized for his defensive effort and his 5v5 play, especially away from the puck.

Expected goals measure the quality of chances a team creates and allows while a player is on the ice.

McKenna opened the year on the second line beside John Tavares and William Nylander, so a share this low suggests Toronto is getting pinned back during his shifts.

After two games, his Corsi sat at 28.3 percent and his scoring chance share at 28 percent, per Natural Stat Trick numbers cited by The Hockey Writers.

Those are numbers you expect from fringe depth players, not a franchise cornerstone. He has also yet to score his first NHL point, so production is not masking the underlying results.

Toronto has tied much of its long-term outlook to McKenna becoming a difference maker.

Meanwhile, Easton Cowan leads the team in 5v5 expected goals share at 73.48 percent, which shows how far McKenna sits from the pack. If his line keeps getting outchanced, the Leafs face a tough choice.

They can keep feeding a teenager heavy minutes and absorb the damage in the standings, or they can drop him down the lineup, which risks slowing his development and dulling the team's top-end talent.

Eighteen-year-old forwards rarely arrive fully formed, and a three-game window proves little on its own. Even so, a team coming off a dismal 2025-26 season needs its rookie to tilt the ice, not tilt it against them. The next few weeks will show whether this is growing pain or a warning sign.

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