Edmonton Oilers lock up fan-favorite to a five-year contract below market value

That price tells you something important about how this deal got done.

AFP Analytics projected Dickinson at just over $5 million annually on the open market this summer.

The Fourth Period's David Pagnotta placed his value in a similar range, arguing Dickinson was the best available center in a notably thin free agent class.

Edmonton locked him in for a full million per year below those projections, and did it before July 1 opened the bidding.

The full cost of keeping Dickinson goes deeper than the AAV. General manager Stan Bowman surrendered Andrew Mangiapane and a conditional 2027 first-round pick to acquire him from the Chicago Blackhawks at the trade deadline.

Colton Dach was part of that return as well. Dickinson appeared in 17 regular-season games for Edmonton, recording one goal and three assists.

He added two goals and an assist across four playoff games before a leg injury limited him in the first-round exit to the Anaheim Ducks.

In those 17 regular-season games with Edmonton, Dickinson posted the worst on-ice possession numbers of his career.

The Oilers controlled just 39.5% of shot attempts at five-on-five with him on the ice. His reputation as a defensive center was built in Chicago on heavy defensive zone deployment and penalty killing.

Those numbers need to transfer to Edmonton for this contract to age well.

At $4 million AAV, this deal runs through Dickinson's age-35 season. Right now that looks smart, given the thin center market and the structural role Edmonton needs filled around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The harder question is what a $4 million cap hit looks like in 2030 for a checking center whose possession numbers are already trending downward.

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