The Stars are expected to trade Jason Robertson, according to top NHL insider Darren Dreger

That is only half right.

TSN insider Darren Dreger said on June 22 that it is more likely than not the Dallas Stars trade their franchise winger.

Robertson just posted 45 goals and 96 points in 82 games - elite production by any measure.

But framing this as a Stars cap failure misses something important. This is an agent story as much as a contract story.

Robertson's representative, Andy Scott, secured an eight-year deal worth $14 million per season for Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton two years ago.

Scott appears to be running the same playbook for his next client. Dallas reportedly offered Robertson eight years at $12 million AAV - the same structure they gave Mikko Rantanen.

Robertson's camp is reportedly seeking $14 million.

That $2 million gap on an eight-year deal equals $16 million in total value. That is the entire dispute.

Jim Nill built this roster around Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen. Matching the $14 million demand likely forces a Hintz trade to make the cap math work.

Keeping Hintz and settling at $12 million requires Robertson's camp to move. Neither side has blinked yet.

The offer sheet threat is real. Dreger noted that a majority of NHL teams have the four first-round picks required to execute one.

Robertson is restricted, so he cannot simply walk - but his camp can force Dallas into an impossible decision.

The NHL Draft opens Thursday. The pressure is at its peak. If Nill cannot close a deal before free agency on July 1, Robertson's rights become the most valuable trade asset in the league.

Dreger was careful to say "more likely than not" - not certain. There is still a deal to be made.

The question is whether $2 million is the hill one side chooses to die on.

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