Jason Robertson announces official decision regarding his future with the Stars
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Jason Robertson filing for arbitration looks like he's losing leverage, but that was never the plan.
Elliotte Friedman reported Sunday that Robertson has indicated he'll file for salary arbitration, which also kills any offer sheet possibility ahead of the 5 p.m. ET deadline.
That reads like Robertson surrendering his best outside pressure on the Dallas Stars. It isn't.
Robertson already showed what he actually wants when he refused to sign a long-term deal in the Seattle Kraken sign-and-trade that general manager Jim Nill had lined up.
Control over his own destination matters more to him than control over his price.
Robertson is coming off a career year, posting 96 points on 45 goals and 51 assists in 82 games this season.
That production is exactly why letting him reach the open market is a real risk for Dallas, not a formality.
What arbitration actually buys him
A one-year arbitration award, projected in the $9 million to $10 million range, keeps Robertson in Dallas for exactly one more season.
Then he hits unrestricted free agency next summer with zero restrictions on which team he signs with.
Giving up the offer sheet threat costs him almost nothing, since Dallas already showed no urgency to match one.
Why Nill lets it get to this point
Dallas already has its highest-paid player. Mikko Rantanen signed his eight-year, $96 million extension at a $12 million cap hit to facilitate his trade from the Carolina Hurricanes last year.
Handing Robertson a similar number long-term reshapes the Stars' cap structure for years. A one-year bridge lets Nill delay that decision without losing Robertson this season.
Prime, top-six wingers almost never make it to true unrestricted free agency. When one does, it resets the market for every team with cap space to spend.
The arbitration filing isn't the story. The open market Robertson walks into next July is.
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