Columbus just made a trade decision on Kirill Marchenko

Aaron Portzline said on the DLLS Stars Podcast that he does not expect Columbus to move Marchenko, and that the winger should open the season with the club.

Portzline also suggested Marchenko may wait past July 1 next summer before signing anything, using the calendar as leverage. The calendar does matter, just not for the reason it is being framed.

Marchenko was born on July 21, 2000, which makes him 27 years old as of June 30, 2028. That is the exact threshold for Group 3 unrestricted free agency.

His $3.85 million cap hit runs through 2026-27, so the next negotiation happens in the summer of 2027 with arbitration rights attached. That contract is the last one Don Waddell gets to control.

Reaching July 1 unsigned would expose Marchenko to an offer sheet, and the standard club counter is to file for arbitration and erase that risk. Columbus cannot use that tool cleanly here.

Under the CBA, a restricted free agent one season away from unrestricted status can only be awarded a one-year contract in arbitration. Filing on Marchenko in 2027 buys one more season, then hands him to the open market at 27.

That leaves Waddell two real choices and no third. Sign him long term in 2027 at whatever a repeat team goal leader costs against a cap already at $104 million, or trade him while he still carries term.

Every rival tracking this now knows the real prize date is July 2028, not the coming deadline.

Keeping him was the easy call after 27 goals and 67 points in 76 games under Rick Bowness.

The hard one is already scheduled.

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