200-goal scorer has advised the Buffalo Sabres that he won't be back and will become a free agent: Alex Tuch
Photo credit: Winslow Townson-Imagn Images
Darren Dreger reported Friday that Alex Tuch is likely heading to free agency, and the numbers explain why Buffalo was never going to close this deal.
The Buffalo Sabres have roughly $12.9 million in projected cap space this summer. Tuch's market value sits around $10.5 million annually based on comparables like Adrian Kempe's deal with the Los Angeles Kings.
That alone would swallow nearly all of Buffalo's room.
But the real problem runs deeper than one player's price tag.
"It sure sounds like there isn't progress being made between Buffalo and Alex Tuch, and I'm hearing that Tuch is likely going to free agency."
- Darren Dreger
- Darren Dreger
Jarmo Kekalainen also needs to sign restricted free agents Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs, two young forwards central to Buffalo's 50-win, 109-point season.
Paying Tuch $10.5 million would leave less than $3 million for every other roster move the Sabres need to make.
This was never a negotiation failure. It was a cap structure problem.
The production gap Kekalainen cannot replace cheaply
Tuch posted 33 goals and 66 points this season at a $4.75 million cap hit. He killed penalties, scored three shorthanded goals, and added seven power play goals.
That kind of two-way value at that salary was an anomaly Buffalo rode for five seasons. Now the market correction has arrived, and the cap structure simply cannot absorb it.
The irony is that Tuch's excellent season is exactly what priced him out of Buffalo. A quieter year might have kept the extension manageable.
Who benefits from Buffalo's structural problem
Teams with cap space and top-six holes are already circling. The Toronto Maple Leafs carry roughly $22 million in projected room this summer and still have not replaced the scoring void Mitch Marner left when he signed with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Tuch is 30 years old and coming off the kind of season that demands a premium contract.
Kekalainen simply could not write that check and keep building around his younger core. The breakup was baked into the cap sheet long before Dreger confirmed it.
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